Disconfirming evidence: From theory to practice
DOWNLOAD OUR PROSPECTUS ON THE DISCONFIRMING EVIDENCE MATURITY MODEL HERE
Our article, Philanthropy Needs More Disconfirmation Bias, was recently published in the Stanford Social Innovation Review.
It looked at the challenge of 'disconfirming evidence' and why it matters in philanthropy.
Other sectors have practices, structures, and cultural norms which explicitly aim to tackle confirmation bias and challenge core assumptions. The philanthropy sector is much less mature in doing this and often has incentives to ignore disconfirming evidence.
Addressing this challenge presents a real opportunity for the sector to deliver greater impact.
Our new framework guides foundations through a systematic process of understanding and incorporating contrary evidence into their decision-making. It's designed specifically for organisations pursuing systemic change, where traditional evaluation approaches often fall short.
The Disconfirming Evidence Maturity Model
The benefits are significant. Foundations using an intentional approach to disconfirming evidence report more confident strategic decisions, stronger partner relationships, and more effective resource allocation. Perhaps most importantly, they develop a more sophisticated learning culture that helps them navigate complexity with greater assurance.
This isn't about creating new bureaucratic burdens or endless analysis. The framework integrates with existing processes, focusing on working smarter rather than harder. It doesn't create extra work for grantees or stifle innovation. Instead, it provides practical tools that help foundations make better decisions - with more confidence.
The framework is particularly valuable for foundations that:
Are shifting towards systemic change approaches
Manage complex portfolios
Work in rapidly changing environments
Seek to improve their strategic impact
We're now working with a select group of foundations to implement this approach.
If you'd like to learn more about how it might benefit your organisation, we would welcome a conversation.
Get in touch with henry@firetail.co.uk to arrange an initial discussion, and download our prospectus here.