Common mistakes and practical lessons for developing a Theory of Change

A Theory of Change can be a powerful tool. It can tell the story of how the world can be a better place, what it will take to get there, and how you are going to help make it happen.  

Yet in practice they are often “nice-to-have”. An abstract academic exercise that has little impact on the day to day challenges of running a social progress organisation.

Over the years we have developed a tried and tested approach to take teams through a process to deliver a Theory of Change that is practical and useful.

In this article, we share four common mistakes, and four lessons learned about doing it well and making it stick.

What is a “Theory of Change”?

A Theory of Change describes the long-term outcome an organisation, coalition or community is working towards, the pre-conditions for that change and the work that needs to be done to contribute to that change.

It is a way to link outcomes and activities in a way that explains how and why a desired change is expected to come about. 

One way to think about the difference between a Theory of Change and a strategy is the difference between a map and a route. The Theory of Change describes the territory. The strategy describes the choices you make to get across the map.

Not everything in it needs to be done by one organisation, but everything in a strategy needs to make sense in the context of its Theory of Change.

Theories of change - four common problems

If anyone in your organisation has ever said “we did a Theory of Change once, but I don’t know where it is now”, it is likely that it suffers from one of the following problems:

1. It is too complicated

This has been called the “too-many-arrows” problem, where you produce a grand theory of everything. It is exciting to draw but useless to use. It is hard for an organisation and its staff to see how it all fits together, and how it contributes to change in the long term.

Good Theories of Change have a bias to simplicity. People outside your organisation should be able to understand it. People inside should know where their work contributes. Leaders should be thinking about the bits of the theory they know no-one is working on.

2. It is too descriptive

Less useful Theories of Change focus on describing what an organisation does rather than change you want to see in the world.

This can sometimes happen when a funder encourages an organisation to “do a Theory of Change” and the grantee gets to work justifying why they do all the things they already do, and why those things are good.

The process should be more than describing the aggregate impact of your activities. It should be challenging to your current ways of thinking and working.

3. It is too vague

Sometimes it is just all too vague. It can be so broad that it’s impossible to see where the organisation fits in. It’s important to separate what is interesting from what is important. In a good Theory of Change you will know when you have done it.

4. It is low stakes

“Doing a Theory of Change” oftens means a one-time exercise that doesn’t connect to any other process. It might just be a ‘nice-to-have’ to fill an afternoon at an awayday. As a result, it can feel like an overhead and an abstract exercise, rather than process that matters. When they are carried out without a participative process, there should be no surprise when there is limited buy-in.  

Practical lessons for good Theories of Change

In our experience, there are four lessons for anyone thinking about doing a Theory of Change with the hope of making it useful and making it stick.

1. Describe the world as you want it to be, not the organisation as it is

Our process works backwards from a long-term outcome. You get a good long-term outcome when you ask the question “How might we bring about the world we want to see?” rather than “What is the aggregate impact of all this stuff we do?”.

If you think about the long-term outcome first, then you can think about the preconditions for this change and the interventions needed to get there. This will help you understand how your activities contribute to a goal that is bigger than the organisation. The last thing you should talk about is what you do today.

2. Spend time getting the long-term outcome right

In our experience, a good Theory of Change almost always turns on getting the long-term outcome right. Everything else can be fixed, but you need a clear articulation of the change you want to see in the world.

This can feel like it will be simple and quick but in practice it of often the hardest part of the exercise. If you want to invest time in developing your theory of change, this is where you should spend most of it.

Trust in the process: this is where you will need to spend time reconciling core differences, philosophies, and underlying values. This process can reveal deep tensions, but provide deep foundations.

3. Open up the process

A Theory of Change is more likely to “stick” if it is developed through a participative and consequential process.

This should be both motivating and challenging, because a good Theory of Change should imply change for you. Involving stakeholders in the process strengthens, challenges and validates the final outcome.

This can be uncomfortable, but it’s worthwhile because it will ultimately increase your chances of success.

4. Take deliberate steps to embed it

The impact of a good Theory of Change can be immediate, but embedding it can take years. It needs clear links to strategy, monitoring and evaluation. It will often have implications for culture, communications and partnership.

Developing a Theory of Change can help your organisation to focus on measuring what matters in the world around you. You need to know where you are on the journey to your long-term outcome. This means establishing monitoring and evaluation tools that tell you this.

If the long-term outcome is right, processes, systems, and culture are probably more critical than tools: focus on learning and course correction rather than auditing and understanding effects.

Conclusion

Investing time in your Theory of Change can give your organisation clarity and consensus on how positive change will happen, and what your organisation will contribute to get there. Too often, it’s an academic exercise, but done right we have seen it lead to profound changes in the clients we have worked with.

Firetail works across sectors with clients on strategy engagements of all kinds. If you’re interested in talking to us about this type of work, please do get in touch via mail@firetail.co.uk